A Vision for the Transportation System After Next

A Vision for the Transportation System After Next

اسلاید 1: A Vision for the Transportation System After NextGovernment, Universities, and Industry working together on A National Initiative to create a mode independent transportation system of the future

اسلاید 2: MissionDefine how the United States will meet its future mobility needs so that we can initiate R&D programs today that will allow us to achieve that future state.The future IS mobility - - moving people, goods, and ideas

اسلاید 3: Transportation System After Next ApproachBuild on National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) and Federal strategic planning effortsTake long-term, systemic view of transportation challenges and opportunitiesBuild consensus within transportation enterprise for visionRole of Transportation (e.g., e-commerce)Challenges (e.g., fatalities, congestion, emissions)Goals (“stretch”)Opportunities (e.g., innovative concepts, technology)Work together to implement

اسلاید 4: Progression/lineageModification of C Huettner ASME 6/12/2000 presentation slide #5 Economy, Quality of Life, and Security E-commerce and Mobility TechnologyResearch and Education(Creation)(Physical Distribution)

اسلاید 5: Mobility is the moving of people, goods, and ideasInfo-techTransportationX-techMobilityX-tech: currently this is nano-tech and bio-tech, in the future therewill be other new enablers.

اسلاید 6: U.S. Transportation Trends 2025World population will grow ~40 percent60 percent will live in cities with more than 10 million people or more20 percent of the population in the industrialized world will be over 65Number of vehicles in world will increase from 730 million to ~ 1 billionDomestic and international marine trade will more than doubleNumber of airline passengers will triple and air carrier operations will double

اسلاید 7: U.S. Transportation Trends

اسلاید 8: Forecasts – World Traffic Volume WORLD TRAFFIC VOLUME, measured in passenger-kilometers (PKM), will continue to balloon, with higher-speed transport gaining market share. By 2050, automobiles will supply less than two fifths of global volume.Scientific American, The Past and Future of Global Mobility; October 1997http://www.sciam.com/1097issue/1097schaferbox1.html35%20%4%41% RailwaysBusesAutomobilesHigh Speed Transport43%29%9%53%6%25%26%54%9%3%20%5.5 Trillion PKM196023%23.4 Trillion PKM199053 Trillion PKM2020103 Trillion PKM2050

اسلاید 9: History – Growth of U.S. Freight 1965- 1997 1,854 2,283 2,949 3,650 3,738 ton-miles 1965 1975 1985 1995 1997 yearRailWaterTruckOil PipelineAirU.S. DOT BTS National Transportation Statistics, 1999, p. 610.05%0.2 %0.1 %0.4 %0.4 %

اسلاید 10: National Transportation SystemChallengesHuman and social costs (e.g., fatalities, injuries)Exploding global population and congestionAging populationExpanding trade and tourismGlobalization and economic competitivenessEnvironmental concernsTerrorist threatsAdvanced technologyMassive InfrastructureOpportunitiesEliminate transportation-related deaths, injuries and crashesProvide access and mobility for all AmericansReduce travel time and costIncrease throughput of people and freight in all weather conditionsEliminate environmental emissions, including noiseEnhance system securityAdvanced technology (e.g., information, nano)

اسلاید 11: Transportation Outcome MeasuresSaveLivesTimeMoneyEnergyEnvironmentIncreaseThroughputTradeWorkforce skillsReduce/eliminateCrashesDeathsInjuriesProperty lossCongestionEnvironmental impactVulnerabilitiesTheftDrugs & Illegal Aliens

اسلاید 12: Big Hairy Audacious Goals (BHAGs)Desired end state or outcomeClear and compelling, requiring little or no explanation.Not a sure bet, probably only 50-70 % probability of successPuts organizations outside of their “comfort zone.”Bold and exciting, stimulating progress even if the leadership disappeared before completion.Consistent with an organization’s core ideology.Source: James Collins and Jerry Porras, “Built to Last:Successful Habits of Visionary Companies,” Harper Business, 1997

اسلاید 13: Evolution of a Multi-modal VisionAerospace (Air)LandSeaMultimodal FTAGFAA/NASAwhite paper and focus groupNASA• FAA• DOTDHHS• NIST• OSDDoD• OTT• NIJOST• BTS• FWHAFRA• FTA• MARADNHTSA• RSPA• USCGOMB• OSTP• TreasuryIWGwhite paper focus group

اسلاید 14: Product Vision of Transportation System After NextRole of transportation in supporting future US needseconomic securityquality of life of its peopleTrends in transportationWhat is the problem?Where are we going?“Stretch” goalsInnovative technologies and concepts to address goalsSupporting research and education requirementsRoles of partners GovernmentIndustryAcademiaBarriers InstitutionalLegal and regulatoryCulturalPoliticalGlobal

اسلاید 15: Transportation System After Next Plan2000July2001JanuaryAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberMeetingsNSTC Futurists International Concepts TRBResearchImplementationModeling & System AnalysisProductsTransportationRequirementsWhite PaperVision FebruaryActivitiesFTAGFTAGFTAG FTAG

اسلاید 16: Important dates (Washington DC location unless otherwise noted)September 7 Marine Transportation System Advisory Committee MeetingSeptember 11-12 Council on Competitiveness Sessions on e-CommerceSeptember 12 – 13 FAA Research, Engineering and Development Advisory CommitteeSeptember 21 IWG #1 (identify potential “stretch” goals)September 26 – 27 Futurists Workshop and FTAG #1 (Seattle, Washington)October 9 - 12 International Transportation Symposium and FTAG #2October 17 - 19? IWG #2 (review white paper)December 4 - 8? Innovative Technologies and Concepts in Transportation Workshop and FTAG #3 (Memphis, Tennessee) December 12 - 14? IWG #3 (review vision document)

اسلاید 17: More important dates (Washington DC location unless otherwise noted)January 7 - 11 Release Vision Document -- 80th Annual Transportation Research Board Meeting January 11 Plan next steps -- IWG #4 and FTAG #4

اسلاید 18: Background on Federal Strategic Planning EffortsNational Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Transportation R&D Strategic Planning Process Department of Transportation (DOT) Strategic Planning EffortsNational Research Council (NRC) Peer Review of Federal and DOT R&D Strategic Planning Process

اسلاید 19: Federal Strategic Planning ProcessStrategyPresidential Directives, OSTP/OMB Annual Budget Guidance, etc.NSTC Transportation S&T StrategyPlanning, Programming and BudgetingNSTC Transportation Technology and Strategic Research PlansDepartment and Agency Strategic and Performance PlansDepartment and Agency Research and Development PlansImplementationEvaluationQuality/Self Assessments (e.g., Malcolm Baldrige, ISO 9000)Program/Project ReviewsTechnology/System AssessmentsPeer/Independent/Expert Reviews (e.g., NRC, TRB)

اسلاید 20: Federal Transportation R&D Strategic Planning Process -- Principles --Maintain long-term, system-level perspective of needs & opportunitiesFocus on customer & stakeholder needs (e.g., goals)Establish meaningful “stretch” performance goals & targetsDevelop innovation system“Better, cheaper, faster” application through public/private partnershipsWorld-class researchHuman capitalLeverage R&D investmentsFederalOther sectors Capitalize on international trends & market opportunitiesFoster efficient & effective program implementationEnsure peer review evaluationMeasure impact of R&D on system performance

اسلاید 21: National Goals(e.g., safety, mobility)PartnershipInitiatives(e.g., vehicles, physical & info infrastructure) Enabling Research (e.g., science and technology research) Education and Training(i.e., Garrett A. Morgan Technology and Transportation Futures Program)Strategic Planning Approach(NSTC National Transportation S&T Strategy, May 1999)

اسلاید 22: Transportation Science and Technology Strategic PlanningNational Transportation Science and Technology Strategy, April 1999 (Replaced (Federal)Transportation S&T Strategy, 1997)National Transportation Technology Plan, May 2000 (Replaced (Federal) Transportation Technology Plan, 1998)National Transportation Strategic Research Plan, May 2000 (Replaced (Federal) Transportation Strategic Research Plan, 1998)Partnership Plans (Illustrative)National R&D Plan for Aviation Safety, Security, Efficiency and Environmental Compatibility, November 1999

اسلاید 23: Transportation Science and Technology Strategic Planning (Continued)Partnership Plans (Continued)Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles Program Plan, 1995Partnership to Promote Enhanced Freight Movement at Ports and Inter-modal Terminals, February 2000Intelligent Vehicle Initiative: Business Plan, August 1997National Research Agenda for Transportation and Sustainable Communities, September 1999Other Documents (Illustrative)Private/Private Partnerships: Engines for Innovation in Transportation, December 1998 & May 2000Comparison of International Transportation R&D: Expenditures and Priorities, September 1999

اسلاید 24: Background DOT Strategic PlanningPolicy Architecture: 2000-2025Trends and Choices: 2000-2025 (First version published in 1975)DOT Strategic Plan 2000-2005 (Replaces DOT Strategic Plan 1997-2002)Annual Performance Plans (1999, 2000 & 2001)Annual Transportation R&D Plan (1999, 2000, 2001)DOT Annual Budget

اسلاید 25: NRC/TRB Committee on the Federal Transportation R&D Strategic Planning ProcessFY1997Conducted two workshops: advanced transportation technologies and measuring the performance of transportation R&DReviewed Federal transportation R&D strategic planning process and draft NSTC Federal Transportation S&T StrategyFY 1998Reviewed public-private partnerships in Strategy and draft NSTC Transportation Technology PlanConducted workshop on transportation strategic researchFY 1999Reviewed partnerships on medium and heavy-duty vehicles (focus on medium and heavy-duty vehicles) and partnership for advancement of infrastructure and its renewal--transportation

اسلاید 26: NRC/TRB Committee on the Federal Transportation R&D Strategic Planning ProcessFY2000Review DOT transportation R&D in context of DOT Strategic Plan and annual Performance Plan and Report (February 2000)Review Federal/national transportation R&D strategic planning process and impact since 1997 (September 2000)

اسلاید 27: Strengths of Current Transportation Strategic Planning ProcessBest in governmentInclusiveMulti-modalMulti-agencyLooking at longer term (25 years) through scenario planning

اسلاید 28: Limitations of Current Transportation Strategic Planning ProcessNo consensus on National Transportation Strategy to guide government, industry and university plans and systemic solutionsNo long-term outcome/“stretch” goals to stimulate new ideasShort (5-year) planning horizon, except for DoD and NASACurrent modal-oriented transportation system (e.g., operations, programs, processes, investments and infrastructure)Few incentives for organizations to work together to identify and implement systemic solutions

اسلاید 29: http://scitech.dot.gov

اسلاید 30: Background

اسلاید 31: U.S.Transportation SystemHighways4 million miles of public roads205 million commercial and private vehicles4 trillion passenger miles986 billion ton-miles of freight18,700 trillion BTUs consumedMass Transit508 transit providers120,000 vehicles41 billion passenger miles120 trillion BTUs consumed

اسلاید 32: U.S. Transportation SystemRailroads175,000 route miles of track20,000 locomotives, 1.2 million freight cars, 6,500 passenger cars5 billion passenger miles (AMTRAK)1,346 billion ton-miles of freight500 trillion BTUs consumedAviation5,400 public-use airports194,000 commercial and private aircraft445 billion passenger miles (domestic)13 billion ton-miles of freight (domestic)1,900 trillion BTUs consumed

اسلاید 33: U.S. Transportation SystemWater25,000 miles of navigable waterways12 million commercial and private vessels3,900 terminals760 billion ton-miles of freight (domestic)1,350 trillion BTUs consumedPipelines1.6 million miles of pipelines620 billion ton-miles of oil20 trillion cubic feet of gas transported735 million cubic feet of natural gas consumed

اسلاید 34: Challenges - Safety41,500 highway fatalities annually3.5 million people injured annually7 million crashes, incidents and mishaps annually165 billion in medical costs annually70-90 percent of crashes, incidents and mishaps due to human error

اسلاید 35: Challenges - Mobility128,000 major bridges in U.S., ~ 1/4 deficientCongestion costs to motorist ~$51 billion per year, worse impact on national productivityCommercial aviation delays cost airlines over $3 billion annuallyOver 20,000 hours of delay per year at over 20 major airports40 percent of U.S. ports reported landside access impediments

اسلاید 36: Challenges Economic Growth and TradeU.S. aviation industry losing global market shareU.S. automobile industry facing increasing environmental pressures and international competitionU.S. maritime industry’s capacity being outstripped by growth in waterborne trade U.S. intelligent transportation system industry limited by implementation constraints

اسلاید 37: Challenges Human and Natural EnvironmentTransportation accounts for ~ 1/3 of CO2Transportation is fastest growing source of greenhouse gasesTransportation consumes 2/3 of U.S. petroleum Continuing land use conflict between transportation infrastructure and other usesNoise issues constrain airport expansion

اسلاید 38: Challenges - National SecurityDependence on Global Positioning System and information technologies making transportation system more vulnerable to cyber threatTransportation system prime target for chemical/ biological threatIntermodal terminals and interdependencies are key vulnerabilitiesGlobal economic system greatly broadens exposure