صفحه 1:
A Vision for the
Transportation System
After Next
Government, Universities, and Industry
working together on A National Initiative t
create a mode independent transportation
system of the future
صفحه 2:
© Mission
Define how the United States will
meet its future mobility needs so
that we can initiate R&D programs
today that will allow us to achieve
that future state.
The future IS mobility - - moving
people, goods, and ideas
صفحه 3:
‘ansportation System After Next
Approach
* Build on National Science and Technology Council
(NSTC) and Federal strategic planning efforts
° Take long-term, systemic view of transportation
challenges and opportunities
¢ Build consensus within transportation enterprise
for vision
+ Role of Transportation (e.g., e-commerce)
* Challenges (e.g., fatalities, congestion, emissions)
+ Goals (“stretch”)
+ Opportunities (e.g., innovative concepts, technology)
¢ Work together to implement
صفحه 4:
© Progression/lineage
Economy, Quality of Life, and Securi
E-commerce and Mobility
(Creation (Physical
y Distribution)
Technology
Research and Education
1 6/12
صفحه 5:
© Mobility is the moving of
people, goods, and ideas
X-tech: currently this is nano-t
and bio-tech, in the future ther
ill be other new enablers.
۱2
صفحه 6:
©. Transportation Trends 202
۰ World population will grow ~40 percent
* 60 percent will live in cities with more
than 10 million people or more
* 20 percent of the population in the
industrialized world will be over 65
¢ Number of vehicles in world will increase
from 730 million to ~ 1 billion
° Domestic and international marine trade
will more than double
* Number of airline passengers will triple
and air carrier operations will double
صفحه 7:
U.S. Transportation Trends
Highway Travel Through 2020
‘Reference Chard ona Growth ef 18% ey ([ energy Use Through 2020
صفحه 8:
Forecasts - World Traffic Volume
PRailways 9%,
I Buses 20% 2 3%
§ Automobiles o4
23% 54%
‘High spee: 5 5 celica 23.4 Trillion 53 Trillion 103 Trillion
Transport
۳ PKM PKM
990 ۱ 2020 ۳ 2050
RLD ۵۳۳۵ vULUME, measurea in passenger-kilometers (vK™M),
continue to balloon, with higher-speed transport gaining market share
050, automobiles will supply less than two fifths of global volume.
Scientific American, The Past and Future of Global Mobility; October 1997
http://www.sctam.com/1097issue/1097schaferbox1 html
صفحه 9:
History - Growth of U.S. Freight
1965- 1997
B Rail
m Water
O Truck
O Oil Pipeline 0.4% مه
عنم "ا 0.2%
هه د C
0
1,854 2,3 29 3,650.
3,738 ton-miles
3 19173 1985 1995
j.S. Di Nati0hll Transportation Statistics, 1999, p. 61
صفحه 10:
National Transportation System
* Opportunities
- Eliminate transportation-
related deaths, injuries and
crashes
+ Provide access and mobility
for all Americans
+ Reduce travel time and cost
* Increase throughput of
people and freight in all
weather conditions
+ Eliminate environmental
emissions, including noise
+ Enhance system security
- Advanced technology (e.g.,
information, nano)
1 Challenges
Human and social costs
(e.g., fatalities, injuries)
Exploding global
population and congestion
+ Aging population
Expanding trade and
tourism.
Globalization and
economic competitiveness
Environmental concerns
+ Terrorist threats
+ Advanced technology
Massive Infrastructure
صفحه 11:
Transportation Outcome
Measures
* Save ° Reduce/eliminate
: Lives * Crashes
+ Time + Deaths
+ Money + Injuries
+ Energy + Property loss
- Environment * Congestion
* Increase + Environmental impact
+ Throughput + Vulnerabilities
> Trade Theft
- Workforce skills + Drugs & Illegal Aliens
صفحه 12:
Big Hairy Audacious Goals
(BHAGs)
° Desired end state or outcome
° Clear and compelling, requiring little or no
explanation.
* Not a sure bet, probably only 50-70 %
probability of success
* Puts organizations outside of their “comfort
zone.”
¢ Bold and exciting, stimulating progress even if
the leadership disappeared before completion.
* Consistent with an organization’s core ideology.
Source: James Collins and Jarry Porras, “Bult to LastSuecessful Habits of Visionary Companies," Harper
Business, 1997
صفحه 13:
Evolution of a Multi-modal
Vision
FAA/
NASAwhit
e paper
and focus
group
Multimod
al FTAG
صفحه 14:
Product
Vision of Transportation System
After Next
¢ Supporting research and
education requirements
¢ Roles of partners
* Government
+ Industry
+ Academia
* Barriers
Institutional
۰ وه and regulatory
+ Cultural
+ Political
+ Global
Role of transportation in
supporting future US needs
+ economic
+ security
+ quality of life of its people
Trends in transportation
+ What is the problem?
+ Where are we going?
“Stretch” goals
Innovative technologies
and concepts to address
goals
صفحه 15:
ransportation System After Next
Plan
000 2001
July AugustSeptembeDctoberNovembebecembejanuarFebru
1 P| ۴ 9 6
leetings
FTA FTAG FTAG FTAG
A ۵ ۸ ۸ a
NSTC Futurists International Concepts
ctivities TRB
Products J
TransportationWhite Paper Vision
Requirements
صفحه 16:
Important dates
(Washington DC location unless otherwise
noted)
September 7 Marine Transportation System Advisory Committee Meetin|
September 11-12 Council on Competitiveness Sessions o1
e-Commerce
September 12-13 FAA Research, Engineering and
Development Advisory
Committee
September 21 ۰ IWG #1 (identify potential “stretch” goals)
September 26 - 27 Futurists Workshop and FTAG #1 (Seattle,
Washington)
October 9 - 12 International Transportation Symposium and
FTAG #2
October 17-192 IWG #2 (review white paper)
December 4 - 8? _ Innovative Technologies and Concepts in Transportation
Workshop and FTAG #3. (Memphis, Tennessee)
December 12 - 14? IWG #3 (review vision document)
صفحه 17:
More important dates
(Washington DC location unless otherwise
noted)
January 7-11 Release Vision Document -- 80th Annual
‘Transportation
Research Board Meeting
January 11 Plan next steps - IWG #4 and FTAG #4
صفحه 18:
© Background on Federal
Strategic Planning Efforts
۰ National Science and Technology Council
(NSTC) Transportation R&D Strategic
Planning Process
° Department of Transportation (DOT) Strategic
Planning Efforts
° National Research Council (NRC) Peer Review
of Federal and DOT R&D Strategic Planning
Process
صفحه 19:
Federal Strategic Planning
Process
» Strategy
+ Presidential Directives, OSTP/OMB Annual Budget Guidance,
etc.
+ NSTC Transportation S&T Strategy
* Planning, Programming and Budgeting
+ NSTC Transportation Technology and Strategic Research
Plans
+ Department and Agency Strategic and Performance Plans
» Department and Agency Research and Development Plans
* Implementation
* Evaluation
+ Quality/Self Assessments (e.g., Malcolm Baldrige, ISO 9000)
+ Program/Project Reviews
- Technology/System Assessments
+ Peer/Independent/Expert Reviews (e.g., NRC, TRB)
صفحه 20:
Federal Transportation R&D
Strategic Planning Process
-- Principles --
Leverage R&D
investments
Federal
Other sectors
Capitalize on
international trends &
market opportunities
Foster efficient &
effective program
implementation
Ensure peer review
evaluation
Measure impact of R&D
on system performance
Maintain long-term,
system-level perspective
of needs & opportunities
Focus on customer &
stakeholder needs (e.g.,
goals)
Establish meaningful
“stretch” performance
goals & targets
Develop innovation system
“Better, cheaper, faster”
application through
public/private partnerships
+ World-class research
Human capital
صفحه 21:
Strategic Planning Approach
C National Transportation S&T Strategy, May 1999)
Initiatives
off, vehicles, physical & info infrastructiN
Enabling Research
(e.g., science and technology
research
Education and Training
رم Garrett A. Morgan Technology and Transportation
Futures Program)
صفحه 22:
Transportation Science and
Technology Strategic Planning
* National Transportation Science and Technology
Strategy, April 1999 (Replaced
(redera Transportation S&T Strategy, 1997)
National Transportation Technology Plan, May 2000
(Replaced (Federal) Transportation Technology Plan,
1998)
+ National Transportation Strategic Research Plan, May
2000 (Replaced (Federal) Transportation Strategic
Research Plan, 1998)
¢ Partnership Plans (Illustrative)
+ National R&D Plan for Aviation Safety, Security,
Efficiency and Environmental Compatibility, November
1999
صفحه 23:
Transportation Science and
Technology Strategic Planning
(Continued)
s Partnership Plans (Continued)
- Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles Program
Plan, 1995
Partnership to Promote Enhanced Freight Movement at
Ports and Inter-modal Terminals, February 2000
+ Intelligent Vehicle Initiative: Business Plan, August 1997
+ National Research Agenda for Transportation and
Sustainable Communities, September 1999
9 Ofher Documents (Illustrative)
Private/Private Partnerships: Engines for Innovation in
Transportation, December 1998 & May 2000
Comparison of International Transportation R&D:
Expenditures and Priorities, September 1999
صفحه 24:
Background
DOT Strategic Planning
* Policy Architecture: 2000-2025
* Trends and Choices: 2000-2025 (First version
published in 1975)
* DOT Strategic Plan 2000-2005 (Replaces DOT
Strategic Plan 1997-2002)
+ Annual Performance Plans (1999, 2000 & 2001)
+ Annual Transportation R&D Plan (1999, 2000, 2001)
* DOT Annual Budget
صفحه 25:
NRC/TRB Committee on the
Federal Transportation
&D Strategic Planning Process
٠١ 7
- Conducted two workshops: advanced transportation
technologies and measuring the performance of transportation
R&D
+ Reviewed Federal transportation R&D strategic planning
process and draft NSTC Federal Transportation S&T Strategy
° FY 1998
- Reviewed public-private partnerships in Strategy and draft
NSTC Transportation Technology Plan
+ Conducted workshop on transportation strategic research
° FY 1999
- Reviewed partnerships on medium and heavy-duty vehicles
(focus on medium and heavy-duty vehicles) and partnership for
advancement of infrastructure and its renewal--transportation
صفحه 26:
RC/TRB Committee on the
Federal Transportation
&D Strategic Planning Process
٠ 0
Review DOT transportation R&D in context of DOT
Strategic Plan and annual Performance Plan and
Report (February 2000)
+ Review Federal/national transportation R&D strategic
planning process and impact since 1997 (September
2000)
صفحه 27:
Strengths of Current
© Transportation Strategic
Planning Process
° Best in government
* Inclusive
* Multi-modal
* Multi-agency
* Looking at longer term (25 years) through
scenario planning
صفحه 28:
Limitations of Current
© Transportation Strategic
Planning Process
No consensus on National Transportation
Strategy to guide government, industry and
university plans and systemic solutions
No long-term outcome/“stretch” goals to
stimulate new ideas
Short (5-year) planning horizon, except for DoD
and NASA
Current modal-oriented transportation system
(e.g., operations, programs, processes,
investments and infrastructure)
Few incentives for organizations to work together
to identify and implement systemic solutions
صفحه 29:
© http://scitech.dot.gov
TRANSPORTATION
Science and Technology ۱
me 711777 1
Puna eed
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000 ا دام ه؟/ اع PF
صفحه 30:
Background
صفحه 31:
© U.S.Transportation System
۰ Highways
- 4 million miles of public roads
+ 205 million commercial and private vehicles
٠ 4 trillion passenger miles
۰ 986 billion ton-miles of freight
- 18,700 trillion BTUs consumed
° Mass Transit
+ 508 transit providers
+ 120,000 vehicles
+ 41 billion passenger miles
- 120 trillion BTUs consumed
صفحه 32:
U.S. Transportation System
° Railroads
175,000 route miles of track
+ 20,000 locomotives, 1.2 million freight cars, 6,500
passenger cars
* 5 billion passenger miles (AMTRAK)
* 1,346 billion ton-miles of freight
+ 500 trillion BTUs consumed
۰ Aviation
5,400 public-use airports
194,000 commercial and private aircraft
+ 445 billion passenger miles (domestic)
13 billion ton-miles of freight (domestic)
1,900 trillion BTUs consumed
صفحه 33:
© U.S. Transportation System
° Water
+ 25,000 miles of navigable waterways
+ 12 million commercial and private vessels
+ 3,900 terminals
+ 760 billion ton-miles of freight (domestic)
+ 1,350 trillion BTUs consumed
* Pipelines
+ 1.6 million miles of pipelines
+ 620 billion ton-miles of oil
+ 20 trillion cubic feet of gas transported
+ 735 million cubic feet of natural gas consumed
صفحه 34:
Challenges - Safety
° 41,500 highway fatalities annually
° 3.5 million people injured annually
° 7 million crashes, incidents and mishaps
annually
* 165 billion in medical costs annually
° 70-90 percent of crashes, incidents and
mishaps due to human error
صفحه 35:
Challenges - Mobility
128,000 major bridges in U.S., ~ 1/4
deficient
Congestion costs to motorist ~$51 billion per
year, worse impact on national productivity
Commercial aviation delays cost airlines over
$3 billion annually
Over 20,000 hours of delay per year at over
20 major airports
40 percent of U.S. ports reported landside
access impediments
صفحه 36:
© Challenges
Economic Growth and Trade
* U.S. aviation industry losing global market
share
° U.S. automobile industry facing increasing
environmental pressures and international
competition
° U.S. maritime industry’s capacity being
outstripped by growth in waterborne trade
° U.S. intelligent transportation system
industry limited by implementation
constraints
صفحه 37:
Challenges
Human and Natural
Environment
¢ Transportation accounts for ~ 1/3 of CO,
٠ Transportation is fastest growing source
of greenhouse gases
* Transportation consumes 2/3 of U.S.
petroleum
* Continuing land use conflict between
transportation infrastructure and other
uses
* Noise issues constrain airport expansion
صفحه 38:
© Challenges - National Security
* Dependence on Global Positioning System
and information technologies making
transportation system more vulnerable to
cyber threat
° Transportation system prime target for
chemical/ biological threat
* Intermodal terminals and
interdependencies are key vulnerabilities
* Global economic system greatly broadens
exposure