صفحه 1:
Project Risk Management
صفحه 2:
Table 11-5. Sample Risk Register /
Risk Analysis
" Project severity = expectation (1-10) *
impact (1-10)
" When should risk analysis be formed?
" Is not a time activity
" Periodic update and reviewed
صفحه 3:
Severity
30
40
25
Calculating severity
Impact
5
8
5
Expectatio
n
6
5
5
Problem
Staff
Late delivery of
hardware
Communication and
Networks problem
صفحه 4:
Qualitative Risk Analysis
" Assess the likelihood and impact of
identified risks to determine their
magnitude and priority.
" Risk quantification tools and techniques
include:
* Probability/impact matrixes
" The Top Ten Risk Item Tracking
" Expert judgment
صفحه 5:
Probability/Impact Matrix
* A probability/impact matrix or chart lists the
relative probability of a risk occurring on one
side of a matrix or axis on a chart and the
relative impact of the risk occurring on the other.
" List the risks and then label each one as high,
medium, or low in terms of its probability of
occurrence and its impact if it did occur.
* Can also calculate risk factors:
= Numbers that represent the overall risk of specific
events based on their probability of occurring and
the consequences to the project if they do occur.
صفحه 6:
Figure 11-4. Sample
Probability/Impact Matrix
risk 1
risk 4
risk 12
High
risk 9
risk 2
risk 5
risk 11
risk 8
risk 10
Medium
Impact
risk 6
risk 3
risk 7
Low
High
Probability
Medium
صفحه 7:
lable 11-6. sample
Probability/Impact Matrix for
Qualitative Riclz Nccacemant
PROBABILITY OF FAILURE (Ps) ATTRIBUTES OF SUGGESTED TECHNOLOGY
عمق باق ی سا سا
Haowant/Sorrwane __Harowane/Sornwant
Exiting Simple Design Mubiple ogame ذه
And Services
Minor Redesign Somewhat Complex Mubiple Programs اذه
Major Change Feasisle Fairly Complex Several Parallel Programs 05
Complex HW Designs ew Very Complex AL Leis! One Other Proytarn 0.7
'SW'Simlar co Exiting
0.9 Some Research Completed’ Extemely Complex No Additional كمي
Never Done Defore
‘CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE (Ci) ATTRIBUTES OF SUGGESTED TECHNOLOGY
Downer (OT) ] مس سا
هعومجم Souris
Confident Mighty Contident 90—100% موه ام بو
Wil Meet 1OC Wil Renee DT تسس
Sigmileanly
تقر م كته مد تدس بق ممم كيه 05
Wil Reduce DT الل لسر باس
Significant
Sinwle Accpiable LCC WIN Nor 30—75% enident—mughly Content 0
Aleraiive ge Much Wl Moet IOC Wil Reduce DT.
Somewhat
Some Possible Fale Confident 25—S0% canddent Farry Coariéent 07
Alteratives Willncrase 1c Wi Meet IOC Wil Reduce DT
Somewhat
NoAccepsable Highly Confident 0—25% Confers DT May Not Be 09
۱ مس
صفحه 8:
Figure li-o, Chart showing High-,
Medium-, and Low-Risk
Technologies
| High Risk
ae
Medium
Risk
2
Risk
0.2 04 0.6 0.8 1.0
Consequence of Failure (Cf)
1.0
08
0.6
04
0.2
0
Probability
of Failure
(Pf)
صفحه 9:
Top Ten Risk Item Tracking
Top Ten Risk Item Tracking is a
qualitative risk analysis tool that helps to
identify risks and maintain an awareness of
risks throughout the life of a project.
Establish a periodic review of the top ten
project risk items.
List the current ranking, previous ranking,
number of times the risk appears on the
list over a period of time, and a summary of
progress made in resolving the risk item.
صفحه 10:
Table 11-7. Example of Top Ten
Risk Item Tracking
Went Radi
RisItem [This |Last [Number | Risk Resolution
Month | Month | oMonths | Progress
Tradequate T 2 4 Working on revising the
planning entire project plan
Poor definition | 2 3 3 Holding meetings with
of scope project customer and
‘sponsor to clarify scope
Absenccof 3 1 2 Just assigned anew
leadership [project manager to lead
the project after old one
quit
Poor cost 4 4 3 Revising cost estimates
۹
Poor time 5 5 3 Revising schedule
estimates estimates
صفحه 11:
Expert Judgment
= Many organizations rely on the intuitive
feelings and past experience of experts to
help identify potential project risks.
" Experts can categorize risks as high,
medium, or low with or without more
sophisticated techniques.
= Can also help create and monitor a watch
list, a list of risks that are low priority, but
are still identified as potential risks.
صفحه 12:
Quantitative Risk Analysis
" Often follows qualitative risk analysis, but
both can be done together.
* Large, complex projects involving leading
edge technologies often require extensive
quantitative risk analysis.
* Main techniques include:
" Decision tree analysis
* Simulation
" Sensitivity analysis
صفحه 13:
0 « ۲/۱ ۱( ۵10/11ن1ی ات1271
Expected Monetary Value
(EMV)
" A decision tree is a diagramming analysis
technique used to help select the best
course of action in situations in which
future outcomes are uncertain.
" Estimated monetary value (EMV) is the
product of a risk event probability and the
risk event’s monetary value.
= You can draw a decision tree to help find
the EMV.
صفحه 14:
1 1للمال1! 2 1 1۰۹۷. LAVOCULou
Monetary Value (EMV)
Example
Probability (P) times Outcome = EMV
P=.20, x $300,000 = +$60,000
Project 1
Decision, P=.80 x —$40,000 = —$32,000
P=.20 X —$50,000 =—$10,000
Project 2 ير که —$20,000 = —$2,000
P=.70 x $60,000 = $42,000
Project 1's EMV = $60,000 —32,000 = $28,000
Project 2's EMV = —$10,000 —2,000 + 42,000 = $30,000
14
صفحه 15:
Sensitivity Analysis
" Sensitivity analysis is a technique used to
show the effects of changing one or more
variables on an outcome.
" For example, many people use it to determine
what the monthly payments for a loan will be
given different interest rates or periods of the
loan, or for determining break-even points
based on different assumptions.
= Spreadsheet software, such as Excel, is a
common tool for performing sensitivity
analysis.
صفحه 16:
Figure ۲1-0. 521122216 7
Analysis for Determining Break-
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صفحه 17:
17
Risk Response Planning
" After identifying and quantifying risks, you
must decide how to respond to them.
" Four main response strategies for negative
risks:
= Risk avoidance
= Risk acceptance
" Risk transference
* Risk mitigation
صفحه 18:
Mitigation Strategies for
Technical, Cost, and Schedule
3
TECHNICAL RISKS Cost Risks ‘SCHEDULE RISKS.
Emphasize team support Increase the frequency Increase the frequency
and avoid stand-alone of project monitoring of project monitoring
project structure
Increase project manager Use WBS and CPM Use WBS and CPM
authority
Improve problem handling Improve communication, _ Select the most experienced
and communication project goals understanding, project manager
and team support
Increase the frequency of Increase project manager
project monitoring authority
Use WBS and CPM.
18
صفحه 19:
Response Strategies for
Positive Risks
Risk exploitation
Risk sharing
Risk enhancement
Risk acceptance
صفحه 20:
Residual and Secondary
Risks
" It’s also important to identify residual and
secondary risks.
* Residual risks are risks that remain after
all of the response strategies have been
implemented.
" Secondary risks are a direct result of
implementing a risk response.
صفحه 21:
Media Snapshot
" A highly publicized example of a risk response to
corporate financial scandals, such as those affecting
Enron, Arthur Andersen, and WorldCom, was legal
action.
" The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 is considered the
most significant change to federal securities laws in
the United States since the New Deal.
" This Act has caused many organizations to initiate
projects and other actions to avoid litigation.*
*losub, John C., “What the Sarbanes-Oxley Act Means for IT Managers,”
TechRepublic,
(March 19, 2003) (http://techrepublic.com.com/5100-6313-5034345.htm)).
21
صفحه 22:
22
Risk Monitoring and Control
" Involves executing the risk management
process to respond to risk events.
" Workarounds are unplanned responses to risk
events that must be done when there are no
contingency plans.
" Main outputs of risk monitoring and control are:
= Requested changes.
= Recommended corrective and preventive actions.
" Updates to the risk register, project management
plan, and organizational process assets.
صفحه 23:
Using Software to Assist in
Project Risk Management
" Risk registers can be created in a simple
Word or Excel file or as part of a database.
" More sophisticated risk management
software, such as Monte Carlo simulation
tools, help in analyzing project risks.
" The PMI Risk Specific Interest Group’s
Web site at has a detailed
list of software products to assist in risk
management.
صفحه 24:
Results of Good Project Risk
Management
" Unlike crisis management, good project
risk management often goes unnoticed.
" Well-run projects appear to be almost
effortless, but a lot of work goes into
running a project well.
" Project managers should strive to make
their jobs look easy to reflect the results of
well-run projects.
صفحه 25:
Chapter Summary
* Project risk management is the art and science
of identifying, analyzing, and responding to
risk throughout the life of a project and in the
best interests of meeting project objectives.
= Main processes include:
* Risk management planning
* Risk identification
" Qualitative risk analysis
" Quantitative risk analysis
* Risk response planning
" Risk monitoring and control
صفحه 26:
lable 1-2. ۱5
Addressed in a Risk
Management Plan
Methodology
Roles and responsibilities
Budget and schedule
Risk categories
Risk probability and impact
Risk documentation