صفحه 1:
Technology
Maturation and
Substitutio:
Amin Aghajani
Zeinab Rouhollahi
Fall 2011
صفحه 2:
|
Introduction
° The most important and difficult task
in managing technology:
The appropriate balance between the
application and extension of conventional
technology and the development and
introduction of new technology
صفحه 3:
|
But Why? The Technology
Paradox
° Most attempts to replace existing
technology will fail.
© Technology is like a jigsaw puzzle.
° But, history shows that all technologies
are fated to be replaced eventually.
صفحه 4:
|
The Technology Paradox
(cont.)
© If we understand how and when a
technology becomes vulnerable as well
as the issues involved in technological
substitution, we are more likely to
achieve a sound balance of effort.
صفحه 5:
Technology Life Cycle
Technical
Advance
صفحه 6:
|
Technology Life Cycle
° When a technology first emerges, there
are almost no constraints on what can
be tried.
° Effort is focused on improving raw
physical capabilities.
° Business is dominated by engineers.
صفحه 7:
ee
Technology Life Cycle
° As the technology is applied, constraint
begin to emerge:
© Advances must be compatible with
equipment already being used
° Nature impose limits
صفحه 8:
صفحه 9:
|
Dominant Design
° What is a dominant design?
°A don ath,
ور مويه
along 0-1 سم chy,
which ong
comp
صفحه 10:
Factors
° the emergence of a dominant design is
the result of a fortunate combination
of factors: شنت
5 يم
لذ - لم
صفحه 11:
|
Facilitating Factors
© What makes a design dominant?
1. Possession of collateral assets (market knowledge,
distribution network, reputation, etc.);
2. Industry regulation and government intervention;
3. Strategic maneuvering at the firm level;
4, Existence of bandwagon effects or network
externalities in the industry.
صفحه 12:
Dominant Design Along
Life Cycle
Development slows
as limit is approached
hy
Emergence of a
dorninant
design SN
Early ۳
problems
Performance
صفحه 13:
|
Technology Life Cycle
° As the gap between natural limit and
reliable practice narrows, more and
more attention shifts from
improvement in capabilities to
improvement in processes that lead to
lower cost.
° Manufacturing effectiveness rises in
importance and visibility.
صفحه 14:
Process Innovation
Product Innovation
Time
صفحه 15:
|
Technology Life Cycle
° As processes become more
sophisticated, they become more
expensive and specialized, and the
technology becomes more capital
intensive.
© The effective management of assets
increasingly determines competitive
success.
صفحه 16:
Era of Process Improvement
‘and Manufacturing Domination
and Engineering Domination
صفحه 17:
Dominant design in
industries
5
*
i 50
و 8
Bon
3
2 20
Years
صفحه 18:
|
Hypothesis
° A firm's probability of surviving through time
will be directly affected by a firm's entry timing
vis-a-vis' the evolution of technology in the
industry.
© The probability of survival will tend to be
greater for firms entering the industry before
the emergence of a dominant design than for
firms entering after it.
صفحه 19:
|
Rationale
© Dominant design is a catalyst for the accumulation
of collateral assets and creation of barriers to
entry:
2 Dominant designs emerge as a process of
experimentation between the firm and the users of the
product.
3 Entering early allows the firm to 'buy' time in order to
experiment with the market and thus increase its
probability of coming up with a dominant design.
صفحه 20:
Typewriter Industry
صفحه 21:
|
An alternative hypothesis
° Firms before a dominant design will
have lower chances for Survival
because the chance of choosing the
wrong design.
© There are some cases which late
entrants can also survive:
صفحه 22:
صفحه 23:
|
Research Conclusion
° Entry pre-dominant design is clearly
associated with lower probability of failure.
° Entry post-dominant design presents more
ambiguous results: only one industry clearly
supports our prediction that the risk of failure
would be higher for firms entering a greater
number of years after the dominant design.
صفحه 24:
But the Paradox Still
Remains!
Old Technology يي
صفحه 25:
But the Paradox Still
Remains!
New
Discontinuity Technology
صفحه 26:
|
What We Can Say
© At a minimum, awareness that a
technology is maturing should alert
managers of technology to its growing
vulnerability and lead them to an
increased monitoring of potential threats
from new fields that may supplant
conventional technology.
صفحه 27:
Technology Substitution
% Penetration of
New Technology
100