The Decision Analysis and Resolution (DAR) Process

The Decision Analysis and Resolution (DAR) Process

اسلاید 1: The Decision Analysis and Resolution (DAR) Process Terry BahillSystems and Industrial EngineeringUniversity of Arizonaterry@sie.arizona.edu©, 2005-09, BahillThis file is located at http://www.sie.arizona.edu/sysengr/slides/

اسلاید 2: Bahill2CMMIThe CMMI model is a collection of best practices from diverse engineering companies.Improvements to our organization will come from process improvements, not from people improvements or technology improvements.CMMI provides guidance for improving an organization’s processes.One of the CMMI process areas is Decision Analysis and Resolution, DAR.

اسلاید 3: Bahill3DARPrograms and Functions select the decision problems that require DAR and incorporate them in their program plans (e.g. SEMPs). DAR is a BAE SYSTEMS common process. Common processes are tools that the user gets, customizes and uses. DAR is invoked throughout the whole program lifecycle whenever a critical decision is to be made. DAR is invoked by IPT leads on programs, financial analysts, program core teams, etc.Invoke the DAR Process in Webster work instructions, in gate reviews, in phase reviews or with other triggers, which can be used anytime in the system life cycle.

اسلاید 4: Bahill4WebsterBAE’s common processes are established by SP.12.15.02.

اسلاید 5: Bahill5Typical decisionsDecision problems that may require a formal decision processTrade studies (eng_cat.shtml#GU0238)Bid/no-bidMake-reuse-buy (PW.10.01.01A017.html) Fagan inspection versus checklist inspection (FM.05-1077.xls)Tool selectionVendor selectionCost estimating

اسلاید 6: Bahill6Purpose“In all decisions you gain something and lose something. Know what they are and do it deliberately.”

اسلاید 7: Bahill7A Simple Model for Human Decision Making, Called Image Theory

اسلاید 8: Bahill8ReferencesThe following description of image theory is based on Beach and Connolly (2005) and Bruce Gissing’s Roadmap to Business Excellence.L. R. Beach and T. Connolly, The Psychology of Decision Making: People in Organizations, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, 2005.B. Gissing, The Roadmap to Business Excellence, http://sie.arizona.edu/sysengr/sie554/BruceGissing/RoadMap.ppt, 2005. A. T. Bahill and B. Gissing, Re-evaluating systems engineering concepts using systems thinking, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C: Applications and Reviews, SMC-28(4): 516-527, 1998.

اسلاید 9: Bahill9Image theory*Decision Makers (DMs) code their knowledge into three images.The value image contains principles of behavior.The trajectory image is the agenda of goals.The strategic image contains the plans for implementing the goals.

اسلاید 10: Bahill10The value imageconsists of the DM’s vision, mission, values, morals, ethics, beliefs, evaluation criteria and standards for how things should be and how people ought to behave. Collectively these are called principles. They limit the goals that are worthy of pursuit and acceptable ways of pursuing these goals. Potential goals and actions that contradict the principles will be unacceptable. It is called the value image because it represents the DM’s vision about the state of events that conforms most closely to his or her principles.

اسلاید 11: Bahill11The trajectory imageis the agenda of goals the DM wants to achieve. The goals are dictated by the problem statement, principles, opportunities, desires, competitive issues and gaps encountered in the environment. The goals are fed back to the value image. The DM’s goal agenda is called the trajectory image, because it is his or her vision about how the future should unfold.

اسلاید 12: Bahill12The strategic imagecontains the plans for implementing the goals. Each plan has two aspects: tactics are the concrete behavioral aspects that deal with local environment conditions,forecasts are the anticipation of the future that describe what might result if the tactics are successful.The plans are also fed back to the value image. The collection of plans is called the strategic image, because it represents the DM’s vision of what he or she is trying to do to achieve the goals on the trajectory image.

اسلاید 13: Bahill13Framing*means embedding observed events in a context that gives them meaning. The DM uses contextual information to probe his or her memory to find image constituents that are relevant to the decision at hand. This provides information about the goals and plans that were previously pursued in this context.If a similar goal is being pursued this time, then the plan that was used before may be reused.

اسلاید 14: Bahill14Two types of decisionsAdoption decisions determine whether to add new goals to the trajectory image or new plans to the strategic image. Progress decisions determine whether a plan is making progress toward achieving a goal.

اسلاید 15: Bahill15Adoption decisionsA new goal or plan can be added if it is compatible with the DM’s relevant principles, does not introduce unacceptable risk and does not interfere with existing goals or ongoing plans. Adoption decisions are accomplished by screening potential goals and plans one by one in light of relevant principles, existing goals and ongoing plans. If only one option passes screening, it is adopted. If two or more options pass the screen, then a tradeoff study determines the best option from among the survivors. Screening is the more common of these decision mechanism.

اسلاید 16: Bahill16Progress decisionsuse the plan to forecast the future.If that future includes achieving a goal, then the plan is retained.If the forecast does not include achieving the goal, then the plan is rejected and a new plan is adopted in its place.

اسلاید 17: Bahill17Two decision mechanismsThe incompatibility test screens options based on how well they fit the DM’s images. The profitability test focuses on the quality of the outcomes associated with the options.

اسلاید 18: Bahill18The incompatibility testscreens options (plans and goals) based on their incompatibility with constituents* defined in the three images. Each option’s incompatibility increases as a function of the weighted sum of the number of violations.**Violations are defined as negations, contradictions, preventions, retardations or any other form of interference with the realization one of the images’ constituents. If the weighted sum of the violations exceeds some rejection threshold, then the option is rejected, otherwise it is adopted.

اسلاید 19: Bahill19Profitability testWhen more than one option survives the incompatibility screen, the DM chooses the best using a profitability test. The profitability test is not a single decision mechanism.It is a repertory of strategies such as maximizing subjective expected utility, satisficing and performing tradeoff studies.The selected strategy depends on characteristics of the choice, characteristics of the environment, characteristics of the DM.

اسلاید 20: Bahill20Image theory for organizations*Decisions in organizations are made by individual DMs, often forming a consensus. So for organizational decisions, we can use the individual decision making model that we have just developed. The only major addition is the need for a case for change.

اسلاید 21: Bahill21The need for change*People do not make good decisions.A careful tradeoff study will help you overcome human ineptitude and thereby make better decisions.

اسلاید 22: Bahill22Rational decisions*One goalPerfect information The optimal course of action can be describedThis course maximizes expected value This is a prescriptive model. We tell people that, in an ideal world, this is how they should make decisions.

اسلاید 23: Bahill23Satisficing*When making decisions there is always uncertainty, too little time and insufficient resources to explore the whole problem space. Therefore, people cannot make rational decisions. The term satisficing was coined by Noble Laureate Herb Simon in 1955. Simon proposed that people do not attempt to find an optimal solution. Instead, they search for alternatives that are good enough, alternatives that satisfice.

اسلاید 24: Bahill24Humans are not rational*1Mark Twain said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Humans are often very certain of knowledge that is false. What American city is directly north of Santiago Chile? If you travel from Los Angeles to Reno Nevada, in what direction would you travel? Most humans think that there are more words that start with the letter r, than there are with r as the third letter.

اسلاید 25: Bahill25Illusions*We call these cognitive illusions.We believe them with as much certainty as we believe optical illusions.

اسلاید 26: Bahill26The Müller-Lyer Illusion*

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اسلاید 29: Bahill29Humans judge probabilities poorly*

اسلاید 30: Bahill30Monty Hall Paradox1*

اسلاید 31: Bahill31Monty Hall Paradox2*

اسلاید 32: Bahill32Monty Hall Paradox3*

اسلاید 33: Bahill33Monty Hall Paradox4*

اسلاید 34: Bahill34Monty Hall Paradox5*Now here is your problem. Are you better off sticking to your original choice or switching?A lot of people say it makes no difference. There are two boxes and one contains a ten-dollar bill. Therefore, your chances of winning are 50/50.However, the laws of probability say that you should switch.

اسلاید 35: Bahill35Monty Hall Paradox6*The box you originally chose has, and always will have, a one-third probability of containing the ten-dollar bill. The other two, combined, have a two-thirds probability of containing the ten-dollar bill. But at the moment when I open the empty box, then the other one alone will have a two-thirds probability of containing the ten-dollar bill. Therefore, your best strategy is to always switch!

اسلاید 36: Bahill36UtilityWe have just discussed the right column, subjective probability.Now we will discuss the bottom row, utility

اسلاید 37: Bahill37UtilityUtility is a measure of the happiness, satisfaction or reward a person gains (or loses) from receiving a good or service.Utilities are numbers that express relative preferences using a particular set of assumptions and methods.Utilities include both subjectively judged value and the assessors attitude toward risk.

اسلاید 38: Bahill38RiskSystems engineers use risk to evaluate and manage bad things that could happen, hazards. Risk is measured with the frequency (or probability) of occurrence times the severity of the consequences.However, in economics and in the psychology of decision making, risk is defined as the variance of the expected value, uncertainty.*

اسلاید 39: Bahill39Ambiguity, uncertainty and hazards*Hazard: Would you prefer my forest picked mushrooms or portabella mushrooms from the grocery store?Uncertainty: Would you prefer one of my wines or a Kendall-Jackson merlot?Ambiguity: Would you prefer my saffron and oyster sauce or marinara sauce?

اسلاید 40: Bahill40Humans are not rationalEven if they had the knowledge and resources, people would not make rational decisions, because they do not evaluate utility rationally. Most people would be more concerned with a large potential loss than with a large potential gain. Losses are felt more strongly than equal gains. Which of these wagers would you prefer to take?*$2 with probability of 0.5 and $0 with probability 0.5$1 with probability of 0.99 and $1,000,000 with probability 0.00000001$3 with probability of 0.999999 and -$1,999,997 with probability 0.000001They all have an expected value of $1

اسلاید 41: Bahill41Gains and losses are not valued equally*

اسلاید 42: Bahill42Subjective expected utilitycombines two subjective concepts: utility and probability.Utility is a measure of the happiness or satisfaction a person gains from receiving a good or service.Subjective probability is the person’s assessment of the frequency or likelihood of the event occurring. The subjective expected utility is the product of the utility times the probability.

اسلاید 43: Bahill43Subjective expected utility theorymodels human decision making as maximizing subjective expected utilitymaximizing, because people choose the set of alternatives with the highest total utility, subjective, because the choice depends on the decision maker’s values and preferences, not on reality (e.g. advertising improves subjective perceptions of a product without improving the product), and expected, because the expected value is used. This is a first-order model for human decision making. Sometimes it is called Prospect Theory*.

اسلاید 44: Bahill44

اسلاید 45: Bahill45Why teach tradeoff studies?Because emotions, cognitive illusions, biases, fallacies, fear of regret and use of heuristics make humans far from ideal decision makers.Using tradeoff studies judiciously can help you make rational decisions.We would like to help you move your decisions from the normal human decision-making lower-right quadrant to the ideal decision-making upper-left quadrant.

اسلاید 46: Bahill46The Decision Analysis and Resolution Proces (DAR)

اسلاید 47: Bahill47Specific goals (SG)A specific goal applies to a process area and addresses the unique characteristics that describe what must be implemented to satisfy the process area. The specific goal for the DAR process area isSG 1Evaluate Alternatives.

اسلاید 48: Bahill48Specific practices (SP)A specific practice is an activity that is considered important in achieving the associated specific goal. Practices are the major building blocks in establishing the process maturity of an organization.

اسلاید 49: Bahill49SpecificPracticeNumberDARSpecific Practice NameExample1.1Decide if formal evaluation process is warrantedWhen to do a trade study1.2Establish Evaluation CriteriaWhat is in a good trade study1.3Identify Alternative SolutionsWhat is in a good trade study1.4Select Evaluation MethodsWhat is in a good trade study1.5Evaluate AlternativesWhat is in a good trade study1.6Select Preferred SolutionsWhat is in a good trade study

اسلاید 50: Bahill50

اسلاید 51: Bahill51When creating a processthe most important facets areillustrating tasks that can be done in parallelsuggesting feedback loopsincluding a process to improve the processconfiguration management

اسلاید 52: Bahill52A simple tradeoff study

اسلاید 53: Bahill53DecisionsHumans make four types of decisions: Allocating resources among competing projects* Making plans, which includes schedulingNegotiating agreementsChoosing amongst alternativesAlternatives can be examined in series or parallel. When examined in series it is called sequential searchWhen examined in parallel it is called a tradeoff or a trade study“Tradeoff studies address a range of problems from selecting high-level system architecture to selecting a specific piece of commercial off the shelf hardware or software. Tradeoff studies are typical outputs of formal evaluation processes.”*

اسلاید 54: Bahill54HistoryBen Franklin’s letter* to Joseph Priestly outlined one of the first descriptions of a tradeoff study.

اسلاید 55: Bahill55Tradeoff Study Process*These tasks are drawn serially,but they are not performed in a serial manner. Rather, it is an iterative processwith many feedback loops, which are not shown.Decide if FormalEvaluation isNeeded Problem StatementSelectEvaluation Methods Establish EvaluationCriteria Identify AlternativeSolutionsProposedAlternativesEvaluationCriteria EvaluateAlternativesSelect PreferredSolutionsFormal EvaluationsPerformExpert ReviewPreferred SolutionsPresent ResultsPut In PPAL∑

اسلاید 56: Bahill56Decide if Formal Evaluation is NeededDecide if FormalEvaluation isNeeded Problem StatementSelectEvaluation Methods Establish EvaluationCriteria Identify AlternativeSolutionsProposedAlternativesEvaluationCriteria EvaluateAlternativesSelect PreferredSolutionsFormal EvaluationsPerformExpert ReviewPreferred SolutionsPresent ResultsPut In PPAL

اسلاید 57: Bahill57Is formal evaluation needed? SP 1.1Companies should have polices for when to do formal decision analysis. Criteria includeWhen the decision is related to a moderate or high-risk issueWhen the decision affects work products under configuration managementWhen the result of the decision could cause significant schedule delaysWhen the result of the decision could cause significant cost overrunsOn material procurement of the 20 percent of the parts that constitute 80 percent of the total material costs

اسلاید 58: Bahill58Guidelines for formal evaluation, SP 1.1When the decision is selecting one or a few alternatives from a listWhen a decision is related to major changes in work products that have been baselinedWhen a decision affects the ability to achieve project objectivesWhen the cost of the formal evaluation is reasonable when compared to the decision’s impactOn design-implementation decisions when technical performance failure may cause a catastrophic failureOn decisions with the potential to significantly reduce design risk, engineering changes, cycle time or production costs

اسلاید 59: Bahill59Establish Evaluation CriteriaDecide if FormalEvaluation isNeeded Problem StatementSelectEvaluation Methods Establish EvaluationCriteria Identify AlternativeSolutionsProposedAlternativesEvaluationCriteria EvaluateAlternativesSelect PreferredSolutionsFormal EvaluationsPerformExpert ReviewPreferred SolutionsPresent ResultsPut In PPAL

اسلاید 60: Bahill60Establish evaluation criteria* SP 1.2Establish and maintain criteria for evaluating alternativesEach criterion must have a weight of importanceEach criterion should link to a tradeoff requirement, i.e. a requirement whose acceptable value can be more or less depending on quantitative values of other requirements.Criteria must be arranged hierarchically. The top-level may be performance, cost, schedule and risk.Program Management should prioritize these four criteria at the beginning of the project and make sure everyone knows the priorities.All companies should have a repository of generic evaluation criteria.

اسلاید 61: Bahill61What will you eat for lunch today?In class exercise.Write some evaluation criteria that will, help you decide.*

اسلاید 62: Bahill62Killer tradesEvaluating alternatives is expensive.Therefore, early in tradeoff study, identify very important requirements* that can eliminate many alternatives.These requirements produce killer criteria.**Subsequent killer trades can often eliminate 90% of the possible alternatives.

اسلاید 63: Bahill63Identify Alternative SolutionsDecide if FormalEvaluation isNeeded Problem StatementSelectEvaluation Methods Establish EvaluationCriteria Identify AlternativeSolutionsProposedAlternativesEvaluationCriteria EvaluateAlternativesSelect PreferredSolutionsFormal EvaluationsPerformExpert ReviewPreferred SolutionsPresent ResultsPut In PPAL

اسلاید 64: Bahill64Identify alternative solutions, SP 1.3Identify alternative solutions for the problem statementConsider unusual alternatives in order to test the system requirements*Do not list alternatives that do not satisfy all mandatory requirements**Consider use of commercial off the shelf and in-house entities***

اسلاید 65: Bahill65What will you eat for lunch today?In class exercise.List some alternatives for today’s lunch.*

اسلاید 66: Bahill66Select Evaluation MethodsDecide if FormalEvaluation isNeeded Problem StatementSelectEvaluation Methods Establish EvaluationCriteria Identify AlternativeSolutionsProposedAlternativesEvaluationCriteria EvaluateAlternativesSelect PreferredSolutionsFormal EvaluationsPerformExpert ReviewPreferred SolutionsPresent ResultsPut In PPAL

اسلاید 67: Bahill67Select evaluation methods, SP 1.4Select the source of the evaluation data and the method for evaluating the dataTypical sources for evaluation data include approximations, product literature, analysis, models, simulations, experiments and prototypes*Methods for combining data and evaluating alternatives include Multi-Attribute Utility Technique (MAUT), Ideal Point, Search Beam, Fuzzy Databases, Decision Trees, Expected Utility, Pair-wise Comparisons, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Financial Analysis, Simulation, Monte Carlo, Linear Programming, Design of Experiments, Group Techniques, Quality Function Deployment (QFD), radar charts, forming a consensus and Tradeoff Studies

اسلاید 68: Bahill68Collect evaluation dataUsing the appropriate source (approximations, product literature, analysis, models, simulations, experiments or prototypes) collect data for evaluating each alternative.

اسلاید 69: Bahill69Evaluate AlternativesDecide if FormalEvaluation isNeeded Problem StatementSelectEvaluation Methods Establish EvaluationCriteria Identify AlternativeSolutionsProposedAlternativesEvaluationCriteria EvaluateAlternativesSelect PreferredSolutionsFormal EvaluationsPerformExpert ReviewPreferred SolutionsPresent ResultsPut In PPAL

اسلاید 70: Bahill70Evaluate alternatives, SP 1.5Evaluate alternative solutions using the evaluation criteria, weights of importance, evaluation data, scoring functions and combining functions.Evaluating alternative solutions involves analysis, discussion and review. Iterative cycles of analysis are sometimes necessary. Supporting analyses, experimentation, prototyping, or simulations may be needed to substantiate scoring and conclusions.

اسلاید 71: Bahill71Select Preferred SolutionsDecide if FormalEvaluation isNeeded Problem StatementSelectEvaluation Methods Establish EvaluationCriteria Identify AlternativeSolutionsProposedAlternativesEvaluationCriteria EvaluateAlternativesSelect PreferredSolutionsFormal EvaluationsPerformExpert ReviewPreferred SolutionsPresent ResultsPut In PPAL

اسلاید 72: Bahill72Select preferred solutions, SP 1.6Select preferred solutions from the alternatives based on evaluation criteria.Selecting preferred alternatives involves weighing and combining the results from the evaluation of alternatives. Many combining methods are available. The true value of a formal decision process might not be listing the preferred alternatives. More important outputs are stimulating thought processes and documenting their outcomes.A sensitivity analysis will help validate your recommendations.

اسلاید 73: Bahill73Perform Expert ReviewDecide if FormalEvaluation isNeeded Problem StatementSelectEvaluation Methods Establish EvaluationCriteria Identify AlternativeSolutionsProposedAlternativesEvaluationCriteria EvaluateAlternativesSelect PreferredSolutionsFormal EvaluationsPerform Expert Review Preferred SolutionsPresent ResultsPut In PPAL∑

اسلاید 74: Bahill74Perform expert review1Formal evaluations should be reviewed* at regular gate reviews such as SRR, PDR and CDR or by special expert reviewsTechnical reviews started about the same time as Systems Engineering, in 1960. The concept was formalized with MIL-STD-1521 in 1972. Technical reviews are still around, because there is evidence that they help produce better systems at less cost.The Perform Expert Review process is located at PS0303

اسلاید 75: Bahill75Perform expert review2Technical reviews evaluate the product of an IPT* They are conducted by a knowledgeable board of specialists including supplier and customer representativesThe number of board members should be less than the number of IPT membersBut board expertise should be greater than the IPT’s experience base

اسلاید 76: Bahill76Who should come to the review?Program ManagerChief Systems EngineerReview InspectorLead Systems EngineerDomain ExpertsIPT LeadFacilitator Stakeholders for this decisionBuilderCustomerDesignerTesterPC ServerDepending on the decision, the Lead Hardware Engineer and the Lead Software Engineer

اسلاید 77: Bahill77Present resultsPresent the results* of the formal evaluation to the original decision maker and other relevant stakeholders.

اسلاید 78: Bahill78Put in the PALFormal evaluations reviewed by experts should be put in the organizational Process Asset Library (PAL) or the Project Process Asset Library (PPAL) (e.g. GDE 11 for M601)Evaluation data for tradeoff studies come from approximations, analysis, models, simulations, experiments and prototypes. Each time better data is obtained the PAL should be updated.Formal evaluations should be designed with reuse in mind.

اسلاید 79: Bahill79Manage the DAR processThe DAR Process Owner shall manage and improve the DAR process.The DAR Process Owner will establish a change control board and review the DAR Common Process on a regular basis. This is a high-level review of the DAR Common Process. This review must evaluate the activities, status and results of the DAR process. For instance, it might address use of and training for the many methods of performing DAR.

اسلاید 80: Bahill80Closed Book Quiz, 5 minutes Fill in the empty boxesProblem StatementProposedAlternativesEvaluationCriteria Formal EvaluationsPreferred Solutions∑

اسلاید 81: Bahill81Tradeoff Study Example

اسلاید 82: Bahill82Example: What method should we use for evaluating alternatives?*Is formal evaluation needed? SP 1.1Check the Guidance for Formal Evaluations We find that many of its criteria are satisfied including “On decisions with the potential to significantly reduce design risk … cycle time ...”Establish evaluation criteria, SP 1.2Ease of UseFamiliarityKiller criterionEngineers must think that use of the technique is intuitive.

اسلاید 83: Bahill83Example (continued)1Identify alternative solutions, SP 1.3Linear addition of weight times scores, Multiattribute Utility Theory (MAUT).* This method is often called a “trade study.” It is often implemented with an Excel spreadsheet.Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)**

اسلاید 84: Bahill84Example (continued)2Select evaluation methods, SP 1.4The evaluation data will come from expert opinionCommon methods for combining data and evaluating alternatives include: Multi-Attribute Utility Technique (MAUT), Decision Trees, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Pair-wise Comparisons, Ideal Point, Search Beam, etc. In the following slides we will use two methods: linear addition of weight times scores (MAUT) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)*

اسلاید 85: Bahill85Example (continued)3Evaluate alternatives, SP 1.5Let the weights and evaluation data be integers between 1 and 10, with 10 being the best. The computer can normalize the weights if necessary.

اسلاید 86: Bahill86Multi-Attribute Utility Technique (MAUT)1Assess evaluation data* row by row

اسلاید 87: Bahill87Multi-Attribute Utility Technique (MAUT)2

اسلاید 88: Bahill88Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

اسلاید 89: Bahill89AHP, make comparisonsCreate a matrix with the criteria on the diagonal and make pair-wise comparisons*

اسلاید 90: Bahill90AHP, compute weightsCreate a matrixSquare the matrixAdd the rowsNormalize*

اسلاید 91: Bahill91In-class exerciseUse these criteria to help select your lunch today.Closeness, distance to the venue. Is it in the same building, the next building or do you have to get in a car and drive?Tastiness, including gustatory delightfulness, healthiness, novelty and savoriness.Price, total purchase price including tax and tip.

اسلاید 92: Bahill92To help select lunch today1closeness is ??? more important than tastiness, closeness is ??? more important than price,tastiness is ??? more important than price.

اسلاید 93: Bahill93To help select lunch today2closeness is strongly more important (5) than tastiness, closeness is very strongly more important (7) than price,tastiness is moderately more important (3) than price.

اسلاید 94: Bahill94To help select lunch today3ClosenessTastinessPriceWeight of ImportanceCloseness1570.73Tastiness1/5130.19Price1/71/310.08

اسلاید 95: Bahill95AHP, get scores Compare each alternative on the first criterion

اسلاید 96: Bahill96AHP, get scores2 Compare each alternative on the second criterion

اسلاید 97: Bahill97AHP, form comparison matrix**Combine with linear addition*

اسلاید 98: Bahill98Example (continued)4Select Preferred Solutions, SP 1.6Linear addition of weight times scores (MAUT) was the preferred alternativeNow consider new criteria, such as Repeatability of Result, Consistency*, Time to ComputeDo a sensitivity analysis

اسلاید 99: Bahill99Sensitivity analysis, simpleIn terms of Familiarity, MAUT was strongly preferred (5) over the AHP. Now change this 5 to a 3 and to a 7.Changing the scores for Familiarity does not change the recommended alternative.This is good.It means the Tradeoff study is robust with respect to these scores.

اسلاید 100: Bahill100Sensitivity analysis, analyticCompute the six semirelative-sensitivity functions, which are defined aswhich reads, the semirelative-sensitivity function of the performance index F with respect to the parameter  is the partial derivative of F with respect to  times  with everything evaluated at the normal operating point (NOP).

اسلاید 101: Bahill101Sensitivity analysis2For the performance index use the alternative rating for MAUT minus the alternative rating for AHP* F = F1 - F2 = Wt1×S11 + Wt2×S21 – Wt1×S12 –Wt2×S22

اسلاید 102: Bahill102Sensitivity analysis3The semirelative-sensitivity functions*S11 is the most importantparameter. So go back and reevaluate it.

اسلاید 103: Bahill103Sensitivity analysis4The most important parameter is the score for MAUT on the criterion Ease of UseWe should go back and re-evaluate the derivation of that score

اسلاید 104: Bahill104

اسلاید 105: Bahill105Example (continued)5Perform expert review of the tradeoff study.Present results to original decision maker.Put tradeoff study in PAL.Improve the DAR process.Add some other techniques, such as AHP, to the DAR web courseFix the utility curves documentAdd image theory to the DAR processChange linkages in the documentation systemCreate a course, Decision Making and Tradeoff Studies

اسلاید 106: Bahill106Quintessential exampleA Tradeoff Study of Tradeoff Study Tools is available at http://www.sie.arizona.edu/sysengr/sie554/tradeoffStudyOfTradeoffStudyTools.doc

اسلاید 107: Bahill107Generic goals (GG)Achievement of a generic goal in a process area signifies improved control in planning and implementing the processes associated with that process area. Generic goals are called “generic” because the same goal statement appears in (almost) all process areas. Each process area has only one generic goal for each maturity level. And the generic goal is different for each maturity level.

اسلاید 108: Bahill108Maturity level 2 generic goalGG 2: The DAR process is institutionalized as a managed process.A managed process is a performed process that is planned and executed in accordance with policy; employs skilled people having adequate resources to produce controlled outputs; involves relevant stakeholders; is monitored, controlled, and reviewed; and is evaluated for adherence to its process description.

اسلاید 109: Bahill109Maturity level 3 generic goalGG 3 The DAR process is institutionalized as a defined process.A defined process is establish by tailoring the selected process according to the organization’s tailoring guidelines to meet the needs of a project or organizational function. With a defined process, variability in how the process is performed across the organization is reduced and process assets, data, and learning can be effectively shared.

اسلاید 110: Bahill110Generic practices (GP)Generic practices contribute to the achievement of the generic goal when applied to a particular process area.Generic practices are activities that ensure that the processes associated with the process area will be effective, repeatable, and lasting.

اسلاید 111: Bahill111Generic practices1GP 2.1: Establish an Organizational Policy,Establish and maintain an organizational policy for planning and performing the DAR process.The BAE solutionSP.12.15.02 Organizational Business PracticesOM.12.15.02A001 Perform Decision Analysis and ResolutionRW.12.01.00A004 Perform Formal EvaluationRF 1 Quantitative Methods for Tradeoff Analyses.doc…RF 12 Manage and Improve the DAR Process.docThese documents are located at Users at BluelnkBludfs001SharedUsersBahill_ATDraft DAR Process DocsAnd O:ENGR_LIBSysPCRDocsReference Docs

اسلاید 112: Bahill112Generic practices2GP 3.1 Establish and maintain the description of a defined decision analysis and resolution process.BAE company compliance documentsSP.12.15.02 Organizational Business PracticesOM.12.15.02A001 Perform Decision Analysis and ResolutionRW.12.01.00A004 Perform Formal EvaluationBAE program implementation evidenceTailoring reports, program plans and trade studies with evidence of use of SP 1.2 to 1.6.

اسلاید 113: Bahill113Generic practices3GP 2.2: Plan the Process,Establish and maintain the plan for performing the DAR process.

اسلاید 114: Bahill114Generic practices4GP 2.3: Provide Resources,Provide adequate resources for performing the DAR process, developing the work products, and providing the services of the process.GP 2.4: Assign Responsibility,Assign responsibility and authority for performing the process, developing the work products, and providing the services of the DAR process.GP 2.5: Train People,Train the people performing or supporting the DAR process as needed.

اسلاید 115: Bahill115Generic practices5 GP 2.6: Manage Configurations,Place designated work products of the DAR process under appropriate levels of configuration management.GP 2.7: Identify and Involve Relevant Stakeholders,Identify and involve the relevant stakeholders of the DAR process as planned.GP 2.8: Monitor and Control the Process,Monitor and control the DAR process against the plan for performing the process and take appropriate corrective action.

اسلاید 116: Bahill116Generic practices6GP 3.2Collect Improvement Information such as work products, measures, measurement results, and improvement information derived from planning and performing the decision analysis and resolution process to support the future use and improvement of the organization’s processes and process assets.

اسلاید 117: Bahill117Generic practices7GP 2.9: Objectively Evaluate Adherence,Objectively evaluate adherence of the DAR process against its process description, standards, and procedures, and address noncompliance. GP 2.10: Review Status with Higher Level Management,Review the activities, status, and results of the DAR process with higher level management and resolve issues.

اسلاید 118: Bahill118ExampleExamples of trade studies are given in O:ENGR_LIBDARDAR TrainingWeb-based DAR Coursedar_index.html

اسلاید 119: Bahill119Webster Tradeoff Study ReferencesUtility Curves (Trade-off Study) FM.05-994Evaluate Design Solutions RW.12.13.14A010Trade-off Study Matrix (template) FM.05-949

اسلاید 120: Bahill120Webster DAR ReferencesOrganizational Business Practices SP.12.15.02Perform Decision Analysis and Resolution OM.12.15.02A001Perform Formal Evaluation RW.12.01.00A004RF.QM Tradeoff AnalysesRF.Decide Formal EvaluationRF.Guide Formal EvaluationsRF.Other DAR MethodsRF.Establish Evaluation CriteriaRF.ID Alternative SolutionsRF.Select Evaluation MethodsRF.Evaluate AlternativesRF.Select Preferred SolutionsRF.Expert Review of Trade off StudiesRF.Retention Formal DecisionsRF.Manage Improve DAR

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اسلاید 122: Bahill122How to printTo print this file, do this one time.ViewColor/grayscaleGrayscaleSettingsLight grayscaleClose grayscale view