Technology Maturation and Substitution
اسلاید 1: Technology Maturation and SubstitutionAmin AghajaniZeinab RouhollahiFall 2011
اسلاید 2: IntroductionThe most important and difficult task in managing technology:The appropriate balance between the application and extension of conventional technology and the development and introduction of new technology2
اسلاید 3: But Why? The Technology ParadoxMost attempts to replace existing technology will fail.Technology is like a jigsaw puzzle.But, history shows that all technologies are fated to be replaced eventually.3
اسلاید 4: The Technology Paradox (cont.)If we understand how and when a technology becomes vulnerable as well as the issues involved in technological substitution, we are more likely to achieve a sound balance of effort.4
اسلاید 5: Technology Life Cycle5
اسلاید 6: Technology Life CycleWhen a technology first emerges, there are almost no constraints on what can be tried. Effort is focused on improving raw physical capabilities.Business is dominated by engineers.6
اسلاید 7: Technology Life CycleAs the technology is applied, constraint begin to emerge: Advances must be compatible with equipment already being usedNature impose limits7
اسلاید 8: Technology Life Cycle8
اسلاید 9: Dominant DesignWhat is a dominant design?A dominant design is a specific path, along an industrys design hierarchy, which establishes dominance among competing design paths9
اسلاید 10: Factors the emergence of a dominant design is the result of a fortunate combination of factors:10
اسلاید 11: Facilitating FactorsWhat makes a design dominant?Possession of collateral assets (market knowledge, distribution network, reputation, etc.);Industry regulation and government intervention;Strategic maneuvering at the firm level;Existence of bandwagon effects or network externalities in the industry.11
اسلاید 12: Dominant Design Along Life Cycle12
اسلاید 13: Technology Life CycleAs the gap between natural limit and reliable practice narrows, more and more attention shifts from improvement in capabilities to improvement in processes that lead to lower cost.Manufacturing effectiveness rises in importance and visibility.13
اسلاید 14: Technology Life Cycle14
اسلاید 15: Technology Life CycleAs processes become more sophisticated, they become more expensive and specialized, and the technology becomes more capital intensive.The effective management of assets increasingly determines competitive success. 15
اسلاید 16: Technology Life Cycle16
اسلاید 17: Dominant design in industries17
اسلاید 18: HypothesisA firms probability of surviving through time will be directly affected by a firms entry timing vis-a-vis the evolution of technology in the industry.The probability of survival will tend to be greater for firms entering the industry before the emergence of a dominant design than for firms entering after it.18
اسلاید 19: Rationale Dominant design is a catalyst for the accumulation of collateral assets and creation of barriers to entry:Dominant designs emerge as a process of experimentation between the firm and the users of the product. Entering early allows the firm to buy time in order to experiment with the market and thus increase its probability of coming up with a dominant design.19
اسلاید 20: Typewriter Industry20
اسلاید 21: An alternative hypothesisFirms before a dominant design will have lower chances for Survival because the chance of choosing the wrong design.There are some cases which late entrants can also survive:21
اسلاید 22: 22
اسلاید 23: Research ConclusionEntry pre-dominant design is clearly associated with lower probability of failure.Entry post-dominant design presents more ambiguous results: only one industry clearly supports our prediction that the risk of failure would be higher for firms entering a greater number of years after the dominant design.23
اسلاید 24: But the Paradox Still Remains!24
اسلاید 25: But the Paradox Still Remains!25
اسلاید 26: What We Can SayAt a minimum, awareness that a technology is maturing should alert managers of technology to its growing vulnerability and lead them to an increased monitoring of potential threats from new fields that may supplant conventional technology. 26
اسلاید 27: Technology Substitution27
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